Wastewater-Based Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: The effective reproductive number, Re, is a critical indicator to monitor disease dynamics, inform regional and national policies, and estimate the effectiveness of interventions. It describes the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious person through time. To date, Re estimates are based on clinical data such as observed cases, hospitalizations, and/or deaths. These estimates are temporarily biased when clinical testing or reporting strategies change. OBJECTIVES: We show that the dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in wastewater can be used to estimate Re in near real time, independent of clinical data and without the associated biases. METHODS: We collected longitudinal measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater in Zurich, Switzerland, and San Jose, California, USA. We combined this data with information on the temporal dynamics of shedding (the shedding load distribution) to estimate a time series proportional to the daily COVID-19 infection incidence. We estimated a wastewater-based Re from this incidence. RESULTS: The method to estimate Re from wastewater worked robustly on data from two different countries and two wastewater matrices. The resulting estimates were as similar to the Re estimates from case report data as Re estimates based on observed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are among each other. We further provide details on the effect of sampling frequency and the shedding load distribution on the ability to infer Re. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge, this is the first time Re has been estimated from wastewater. This method provides a low-cost, rapid, and independent way to inform SARS-CoV-2 monitoring during the ongoing pandemic and is applicable to future wastewater-based epidemiology targeting other pathogens. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10050.

Estimating Relative Abundance of 2 SARS-CoV-2 Variants through Wastewater Surveillance at 2 Large Metropolitan Sites, United States.

Monitoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) is critical for public health management of coronavirus disease. Sequencing is resource-intensive and incompletely representative, and not all isolates can be sequenced. Because wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations correlate with coronavirus disease incidence in sewersheds, tracking VOCs through wastewater is appealing. We developed digital reverse transcription PCRs to monitor abundance of select mutations in Alpha and Delta VOCs in wastewater settled solids, applied these to July 2020-August 2021 samples from 2 large US metropolitan sewersheds, and compared results to estimates of VOC abundance from case isolate sequencing. Wastewater measurements tracked closely with case isolate estimates (Alpha, rp 0.82-0.88; Delta, rp 0.97). Mutations were detected in wastewater even at levels <5% of total SARS-CoV-2 RNA and in samples available 1-3 weeks before case isolate results. Wastewater variant monitoring should be strategically deployed to complement case isolate sequencing.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Mu, Beta, Gamma, Lambda, Delta, Alpha, and Omicron in Wastewater Settled Solids Using Mutation-Specific Assays Is Associated with Regional Detection of Variants in Clinical Samples.

Changes in the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) may require changes in the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic, as they have the potential to evade vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions and may be more transmissive than other SARS-CoV-2 variants. As such, it is essential to track and prevent their spread in susceptible communities. We developed digital reverse transcription (RT)-PCR assays for mutations characteristic of VOCs and used them to quantify those mutations in samples of wastewater settled solids collected from a publicly owned treatment works (POTW) during different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wastewater concentrations of single mutations characteristic of each VOC, normalized by the concentration of a conserved SARS-CoV-2 N gene, correlate with regional estimates of the proportion of clinical infections caused by each VOC. These results suggest that targeted RT-PCR assays can be used to detect variants circulating in communities and inform the public health response to the pandemic. IMPORTANCE Wastewater represents a pooled biological sample of the contributing community and thus a resource for assessing community health. Here, we show that emergence, spread, and disappearance of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern are reflected in the presence of variant genomic RNA in wastewater settled solids. This work highlights an important public health use case for wastewater.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA is enriched by orders of magnitude in primary settled solids relative to liquid wastewater at publicly owned treatment works.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has gained attention throughout the world for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater to supplement clinical testing. Raw wastewater consists of small particles, or solids, suspended in liquid. Methods have been developed to measure SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the liquid and the solid fraction of wastewater, with some studies reporting higher concentrations in the solid fraction. To investigate this relationship further, six laboratories collaborated to conduct a study across five publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) where both primary settled solids obtained from primary clarifiers and raw wastewater influent samples were collected and quantified for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Settled solids and influent samples were processed by participating laboratories using their respective methods and retrospectively paired based on date of collection. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations, on a mass equivalent basis, were higher in settled solids than in influent by approximately three orders of magnitude. Concentrations in matched settled solids and influent were positively and significantly correlated at all five POTWs. RNA concentrations in both settled solids and influent were correlated to COVID-19 incidence rates in the sewersheds and thus representative of disease occurrence; the settled solids methods appeared to produce a comparable relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration measurements and incidence rates across all POTWs. Settled solids and influent methods showed comparable sensitivity, N gene detection frequency, and calculated empirical incidence rate lower limits. Analysis of settled solids for SARS-CoV-2 RNA has the advantage of using less sample volume to achieve similar sensitivity to influent methods.

High-Frequency, High-Throughput Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater Settled Solids at Eight Publicly Owned Treatment Works in Northern California Shows Strong Association with COVID-19 Incidence.

A number of recent retrospective studies have demonstrated that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater are associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the corresponding sewersheds. Implementing high-resolution, prospective efforts across multiple plants depends on sensitive measurements that are representative of COVID-19 cases, scalable for high-throughput analysis, and comparable across laboratories. We conducted a prospective study across eight publicly owned treatment works (POTWs). A focus on SARS-CoV-2 RNA in solids enabled us to scale up our measurements with a commercial lab partner. Samples were collected daily, and results were posted to a website within 24 h. SARS-CoV-2 RNA in daily samples correlated with the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the sewersheds; a 1 log10 increase in SARS-CoV-2 RNA in settled solids corresponds to a 0.58 log10 (4×) increase in sewershed incidence rate. SARS-CoV-2 RNA signals measured with the commercial laboratory partner were comparable across plants and comparable to measurements conducted in a university laboratory when normalized by pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA. Results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 RNA should be detectable in settled solids for COVID-19 incidence rates of >1/100,000 (range, 0.8 to 2.3 cases per 100,000). These sensitive, representative, scalable, and comparable methods will be valuable for future efforts to scale up wastewater-based epidemiology. IMPORTANCE Access to reliable, rapid monitoring data is critical to guide response to an infectious disease outbreak. For pathogens that are shed in feces or urine, monitoring wastewater can provide a cost-effective snapshot of transmission in an entire community via a single sample. In order for a method to be useful for ongoing COVID-19 monitoring, it should be sensitive for detection of low concentrations of SARS-CoV-2, representative of incidence rates in the community, scalable to generate data quickly, and comparable across laboratories. This paper presents a method utilizing wastewater solids to meet these goals, producing measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA strongly associated with COVID-19 cases in the sewershed of a publicly owned treatment work. Results, provided within 24 h, can be used to detect incidence rates as low as approximately 1/100,000 cases and can be normalized for comparison across locations generating data using different methods.

Effect of storage conditions on SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantification in wastewater solids.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater settled solids is associated with COVID-19 incidence in sewersheds and therefore, there is a strong interest in using these measurements to augment traditional disease surveillance methods. A wastewater surveillance program should provide rapid turn around for sample measurements (ideally within 24 hours), but storage of samples is necessary for a variety of reasons including biobanking. Here we investigate how storage of wastewater solids at 4 °C, -20 °C, and -80 °C affects measured concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. We find that short term (7 or 8 d) storage of raw solids at 4 °C has little effect on measured concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, whereas longer term storage at 4 °C (35-122 d) or freezing reduces measurements by 60%, on average. We show that normalizing SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations by concentrations of pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA, an endogenous wastewater virus, can correct for changes during storage as storage can have a similar effect on PMMoV RNA as on SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The reductions in SARS-CoV-2 RNA in solids during freeze thaws is less than those reported for the same target in liquid influent by several authors.

Predictive Modeling of Virus Inactivation by UV.

UV254 disinfection strategies are commonly applied to inactivate pathogenic viruses in water, food, air, and on surfaces. There is a need for methods that rapidly predict the kinetics of virus inactivation by UV254, particularly for emerging and difficult-to-culture viruses. We conducted a systematic literature review of inactivation rate constants for a wide range of viruses. Using these data and virus characteristics, we developed and evaluated linear and nonlinear models for predicting inactivation rate constants. Multiple linear regressions performed best for predicting the inactivation kinetics of (+) ssRNA and dsDNA viruses, with cross-validated root mean squared relative prediction errors similar to those associated with experimental rate constants. We tested the models by predicting and measuring inactivation rate constants of a (+) ssRNA mouse coronavirus and a dsDNA marine bacteriophage; the predicted rate constants were within 7% and 71% of the experimental rate constants, respectively, indicating that the prediction was more accurate for the (+) ssRNA virus than the dsDNA virus. Finally, we applied our models to predict the UV254 rate constants of several viruses for which high-quality UV254 inactivation data are not available. Our models will be valuable for predicting inactivation kinetics of emerging or difficult-to-culture viruses.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater Settled Solids Is Associated with COVID-19 Cases in a Large Urban Sewershed.

Wastewater-based epidemiology may be useful for informing public health response to viral diseases like COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2. We quantified SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater influent and primary settled solids in two wastewater treatment plants to inform the preanalytical and analytical approaches and to assess whether influent or solids harbored more viral targets. The primary settled solids samples resulted in higher SARS-CoV-2 detection frequencies than the corresponding influent samples. Likewise, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was more readily detected in solids using one-step digital droplet (dd)RT-PCR than with two-step RT-QPCR and two-step ddRT-PCR, likely owing to reduced inhibition with the one-step ddRT-PCR assay. We subsequently analyzed a longitudinal time series of 89 settled solids samples from a single plant for SARS-CoV-2 RNA as well as coronavirus recovery (bovine coronavirus) and fecal strength (pepper mild mottle virus) controls. SARS-CoV-2 RNA targets N1 and N2 concentrations correlated positively and significantly with COVID-19 clinically confirmed case counts in the sewershed. Together, the results demonstrate that measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in settled solids may be a more sensitive approach than measuring SARS-CoV-2 in influent.

Humidity and Deposition Solution Play a Critical Role in Virus Inactivation by Heat Treatment of N95 Respirators.

Supply shortages of N95 respirators during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have motivated institutions to develop feasible and effective N95 respirator reuse strategies. In particular, heat decontamination is a treatment method that scales well and can be implemented in settings with variable or limited resources. Prior studies using multiple inactivation methods, however, have often focused on a single virus under narrowly defined conditions, making it difficult to develop guiding principles for inactivating emerging or difficult-to-culture viruses. We systematically explored how temperature, humidity, and virus deposition solutions impact the inactivation of viruses deposited and dried on N95 respirator coupons. We exposed four virus surrogates across a range of structures and phylogenies, including two bacteriophages (MS2 and phi6), a mouse coronavirus (murine hepatitis virus [MHV]), and a recombinant human influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (IAV), to heat treatment for 30 min in multiple deposition solutions across several temperatures and relative humidities (RHs). We observed that elevated RH was essential for effective heat inactivation of all four viruses tested. For heat treatments between 72°C and 82°C, RHs greater than 50% resulted in a >6-log10 inactivation of bacteriophages, and RHs greater than 25% resulted in a >3.5-log10 inactivation of MHV and IAV. Furthermore, deposition of viruses in host cell culture media greatly enhanced virus inactivation by heat and humidity compared to other deposition solutions, such as phosphate-buffered saline, phosphate-buffered saline with bovine serum albumin, and human saliva. Past and future heat treatment methods must therefore explicitly account for deposition solutions as a factor that will strongly influence observed virus inactivation rates. Overall, our data set can inform the design and validation of effective heat-based decontamination strategies for N95 respirators and other porous surfaces, especially for emerging viruses that may be of immediate and future public health concern.IMPORTANCE Shortages of personal protective equipment, including N95 respirators, during the coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have highlighted the need to develop effective decontamination strategies for their reuse. This is particularly important in health care settings for reducing exposure to respiratory viruses, like severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. Although several treatment methods are available, a widely accessible strategy will be necessary to combat shortages on a global scale. We demonstrate that the combination of heat and humidity inactivates a range of RNA viruses, including both viral pathogens and common viral pathogen surrogates, after deposition on N95 respirators and achieves the necessary virus inactivation detailed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration guidelines to validate N95 respirator decontamination technologies. We further demonstrate that depositing viruses onto surfaces when suspended in culture media can greatly enhance observed inactivation, adding caution to how heat and humidity treatment methods are validated.